Modeling SARS-CoV-2 spread with dynamic isolation

Modeling SARS-CoV-2 spread with dynamic isolation

Blog Article

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is spreading with a greater intensity across the globe.The synchrony of public health interventions and epidemic waves signify the importance of evaluation of the underline interventions.Method: We developed a mathematical model to present the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and to analyze the impact of key nonpharmaceutical interventions such as isolation and screening program on the disease outcomes to the people of New Jersey, USA.We introduced a dynamic isolation of susceptible population with a constant (imposed) and infection oriented interventions.Epidemiological and demographic data are used to estimate the model parameters.

The baseline case was 100% Hide explored further to showcase several critical and predictive scenarios.Results and analysis: The model simulations are in good agreement with the infection data for the period of 5 March 2020 to 31 January 2021.Dynamic isolation and screening program are found to be potential measures that can alter the course of epidemic.A 7% increase in isolation rate may result in a 31% reduction of epidemic peak whereas a 3 times increase in screening rate may reduce the epidemic peak by 35%.The model predicts that nearly 9.

7% to 12% of the total population of New Jersey may become infected within the middle of July 2021 along with 24.6 to 27.3 thousand cumulative deaths.Within a wide spectrum of probable scenarios, there is a possibility of third wave Conclusion: Our findings could be informative to the public health community to contain the Serving Platters pandemic in the case of economy reopening under a limited or no vaccine coverage.Additional epidemic waves can be avoided by appropriate screening and isolation plans.